Spain’s current housing-price upswing is, to a significant extent, a demographic story: more residents competing for a housing stock that is expanding too slowly. Institut Nacional d’Estadística+1
A key input into that demand is net immigration: Spain recorded a +626,268 net external migration balance in 2024. Institut Nacional d’Estadística
When population and household formation accelerate faster than supply, the pressure transmits into higher prices and rents, especially in constrained markets. BDE
This reinforces the core point: demographics are a fundamental driver of housing cycles.
My model had already projected that, for roughly 20 years from 2007, the national average price would not sit far above the 2007 level.
But it also anticipated that as 2027 approached, prices could reclaim the 2007 threshold and then move beyond it as demographic pressure reasserted itself.
Recent readings are consistent with that “re-acceleration into 2027” mechanism.
Specifically, Q3 2025 reached ~€2,153/m², above the prior high of Q1 2008 (~€2,101/m²). Idealista